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On March 31, Wizards of the Coast will release the next update to the Magic Banned and Restricted list on its official website, with possible changes for all competitive formats of the game, based on tournament results and win rate statistics, in addition to the gameplay experience that certain archetypes provide.
Bans are seemingly evident in Modern, where lists with Underworld Breach perform above the desired level in high-level tabletop events. Meanwhile, a recent debate started by Brian Kibler questions the viability of cards like Up the Beanstalk and Monstrous Rage for the long-term health of Standard, and in Pauper, the time to intervene in the legality of cards to shake up the Metagame may have arrived.
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In this article, we share an analysis of the Metagame of each competitive Magic format managed by Wizards, evaluating which cards could be banned or unbanned from each of them in the next update!
Standard
The chances of bans occurring in Standard on March 31st are very low. The numbers and results in competitive tournaments show a diverse Metagame, and while Bounce decks caused some discomfort for a few months, the format found the answers and the means to prey on them, establishing a rock-paper-scissors scheme between three archetypes: Bounce, Domain and Red Aggro.
At the core of these three strategies are the cards above: Bounce is mostly based on extracting the most from This Town Ain’t Big Enough and efficient ETB effects, Domain is the best (but not the only) Up the Beanstalk archetype due to the enchantment’s interaction with Ride’s End and the Overlord cycle, and Red Aggro mostly capitalizes on the possibility of pulling more damage with a cheap pump like Monstrous Rage, which grants permanent Trample and a considerable power boost for one mana.
Brian Kibler mentioned in a video a few weeks ago that Monstrous Rage and Up the Beanstalk would need to leave Standard to make the format healthier. While his arguments and theories are well-founded, it's a mistake to disregard This Town Ain't Big Enough in this equation, as the decks around these two cards that put Bounce in check in the format - and Bounce is, through its interaction with Hopeless Nightmare and Momentum Breaker, the most "anti-game" deck in the format's current Tier 1.
On a case-by-case basis, it's possible to notice that the most punishing cards against Monstrous Rage and Up the Beanstalk are gone in the next rotation - Cut Down and Sheoldred, the Apocalypse. Added to the ease of extracting value from these cards, as is already the case with Up the Beanstalk and any spell with mana cost reduction, with Monstrous Rage and Prowess and Valiant triggers, or with This Town Ain’t Big Enough and literally any cheap and efficient ETB that has become more common because Magic’s design philosophy is now focused on the board, it makes sense to consider that the decks that are at the top of the format today actually have pillars that put them far above the rest.
Removing the three pieces would essentially mean removing the pillars that underpin the best decks in the format and “rebuilding” Standard from that point on. This doesn't mean that this ban should happen now: there are still Tarkir: Dragonstorm and Final Fantasy to come out before the Edge of Eternities and the rotation, and both could bring new possibilities for interaction and answers to the Metagame or even the birth of new archetypes for Tier 1, but if the format's status quo remains the same until the end of June, it would be preferable for Standard to go through a ban update before the rotation, rather than letting the new cycle happen and then needing interventions.
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Given Wizards' nature in recent years of tinkering with Standard as less as possible, the chances of having these changes - if at all - should only occur as we approach the rotation, or if it is in the company's interest for Final Fantasy and later Universes Beyond cards to have greater relevance and competitive impact in the format's extensive three-year pool.
Pioneer
Without competitive support in 2025, it is unlikely that Pioneer will have interventions and bans, except when strictly necessary. Therefore, fans of the format should expect a “no changes” on the 31st.
The only possibility of changes is if Wizards decides to do some maintenance on the Metagame to make it more dynamic. Although different archetypes show up in the Top 8 and Top 16 of Challenges and the most recent expansions have impacted the format, the best decks in Pioneer remain in the same positions, with the only major change being the new Bounce lists.
In this case, there are two cards that could be on the radar to “diversify” the format at this time.
The first is Fable of the Mirror-Breaker, a card banned from Standard this season for being too efficient in all of its modules while easily enabling archetypes with three or more colors. In Pioneer, its potential is essentially the same, and it helps enable Goodstuff archetypes while also bolstering already well-established decks like Rakdos Demons, which retains the Tier 1 spot for years, although it has evolved with new additions, and the new Mardu Greasefang.
Removing Fable doesn’t kill any decks in the format today, but it makes it harder to extract more value from cards like Enigmatic Incarnation, Fear of Missing Out, among others that can easily be used with one of the enchantment’s properties. In addition, it is a card that requires negative trades to answer all the time.
Companions are a design mistake. It's inevitable that eventually most or all of them will be banned from all formats they're legal in, as their deckbuilding restrictions shift from being a hindrance to an advantage. This is starting to be the case with Yorion, Sky Nomad.
Yorion has been a staple of archetypes like Azorius Control or Niv-to-Light since its release in Ikoria, but Bounce variants are the first deck with consistent results using it the way it was intended: reusing as many ETBs as possible with a single card, and combined with Hopeless Nightmare, Omen of the Sea, Momentum Breaker, Nowhere to Run and Narset, Parter of Veils, the Companion is starting to be the inevitability that makes Dimir/Esper Bounce one of, if not the best deck in the current Metagame.
Magic's philosophy has changed and ETBs have become increasingly common and cost-efficient, as part of the design team's efforts to make each card more exciting to open and in the draft environment. Fear of Isolation and similar cards are to the game today what Snapcaster Mage was a decade ago - and in this case, Yorion, Sky Nomad is to ETB effects what Yawgmoth’s Will is to spells in the graveyard.
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It’s the only card in the format that lets you reuse all your ETBs at once, without paying a cost, and which its controller can consistently access at the “cost” of adding more cards to the deck, which in this case means having more efficient ETB effects to take advantage of. It may not be March 31st, but Yorion’s days in Pioneer may be numbered.
Modern
On the surface, Modern looks healthy when looking at Magic Online's results, but when major events like the Regional Championships roll around, it becomes clear that there is one archetype that is far outperforming the rest of the format: Grinding Breach.
The combo gained Mox Opal in the last wave of unbans and has become quite consistent since then. Its results, however, are masked in online matches by three factors:
As a result, Grinding Breach has shown the best results in tabletop tournaments, including six copies in the Top 8 of the Charlotte Regional Championship and 11 copies in the Top 16, with a 55% win rate against the rest of the format even when it has a huge target to the point that the second most played deck of the event included Relic of Progenitus in the maindeck. After all, the combo is not only consistent, but also manages to masterfully play around hate and even go for a value plan if necessary.
Given the circumstances, it's likely that the late March announcement will feature at least one of these cards banned in Modern:
Mox Opal was unbanned in late 2024 and has shown its true colors. In addition to showing up in Breach decks, the artifact has found its way into Broodscale Combo, Hammer Time, Affinity, and recently even a colorless Eldrazi list with more artifacts to enable the card and speed up Karn, the Great Creator. Despite the divided opinions, it seems safer to admit that free mana will always be a problem in Modern when easily enabled and return it to the banned list.
This does not remove Underworld Breach's responsibility in this equation. Whether as a value engine or a combo piece, the red enchantment does a bit too much for its cost and can often be compared to Yawgmoth's Will for archetypes with the means to feed their graveyard. In Legacy, the card was banned because even Delver lists were running it with Lion's Eye Diamond and Brain Freeze to have a combo line, and it wouldn't be surprising if it continues to cause problems and/or stars in another broken archetype in the future.
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In an ideal world, both pieces should be back on the banned list, but the unban of Mox Opal was based on giving Affinity players a reason to come back with the deck - it happened, but Affinity is far from being the archetype that best utilizes free mana today. It's possible that it will happen, but perhaps the ban will only fall on Underworld Breach.
Unless Wizards decides to compensate for the loss of Opal to Affinity by unbanning artifact lands now that Modern has Meltdown and other cards to support the archetype. And let's face it: that's very unlikely.
Speaking of unbans…
Umezawa's Jitte seems safe at this point, considering the following:
But not all the stars align for Umezawa's Jitte to finally have its moment in Modern: the main archetype with potential to use the card today is Eldrazi, with a copy in the Sideboard to chase with Karn, the Great Creator. One of the main ways to keep Big Mana archetypes like Eldrazi in check is to race and win before the opponent stabilizes, and Jitte can make that route unviable.
One could argue for less aggressive unbans like Punishing Fire, and they have merit, but like Jitte, Fire would mostly play in Big Mana decks that have little to no problem running Grove of the Burnwillows in their lists, and the card's main function has always been to keep Aggro decks in check.
Jitte requires a bit more building around it, rather than being something your deck benefits from just because a land you play returns it from the graveyard. It requires creatures, pay activation costs, and is a bit easier to interact with on the board for Aggro decks that would theoretically be trapped by it.
Pauper
Pauper has been in a long period where the Metagame has been essentially the same since Modern Horizons 3. No new archetype has emerged as a major contender, and most of the changes have occurred in a dance between the other decks that make up, along with Affinity, Kuldotha Red, and Broodscale Combo, the top five decks in the format.
Calls for bans have become commonplace. Many are justified with anecdotal arguments around what people don't enjoy playing against rather than statistics, and a common problem with these types of calls is how they fail to consider the larger scope of the Metagame and meeting them sets a dangerous precedent in the management of competitive formats.
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Despite the aggregate hate, Affinity has one role in the Metagame and Kuldotha Red has another. Together, they balance the format, and the same can be said of the other “top five decks” in Pauper, currently composed of Jund Broodscale, Mono Blue Faeries/Mono Blue Terror, and Bogles.
There is diversity in the format, as well as room for innovation. Recently, a Sacrifice deck with Mortician Beetle has gained more prominence in the Metagame, while Pactdoll Terror is the star of the new versions of Altar Tron.
However, one element of deckbuilding lately has been more noticeable: the amount of answers a player needs to insert for a specific matchup denies the possibility of responding to more archetypes with a more comprehensive sideboard.
Think of cards like Dust to Dust: the main reason to play it is to try to “lock” Affinity - promoting the same anti-play that was done with Gorilla Shaman before Modern Horizons 2. It's a valid proposal, but it loses its potential as the numbers are reduced.
There's a difference between needing to include a card and wanting to include it. When a player adds a set of Dust to Dust, they have a clear goal. Some will say that it's the only possible choice to deal with Affinity, others will say that it's necessary to go even further and play with Revoke Existence to complement it because "Bridges make the deck unfair".
In the end, it's a decision and a bet by the player that it's worth depriving the opponent of mana to advance in the game - it's a game played as intended. It's part of competitive deckbuilding and the behavior of Magic as a TCG.
The problem lies in the other case: when a player needs to include one or more cards for a matchup because, regardless of the deck, they lose quickly if they don't. This is the case with the answers to Broodscale Combo at this point: if someone gets to turn three or four without a way to interact with the combo, they lose.
While the same is true of Kiln Fiend combos or any other non-interactive archetype in Pauper, none of them have the consistency of gameplan and self-protection that Broodscale does. Furthermore, the archetype has reached the level of Splinter Twin where players are starting to add other cards to force attrition with Writhing Chrysalis, turning it from an all-in combo to a midrange with a combo-kill.
It is possible to solve this problem by removing Writhing Chrysalis from Pauper. In the process, PFP would kill Gruul Ramp again and remove perhaps the most intriguing card for the format in years - a quality creature whose only mistake that has generated so much hate for it is that it is too well positioned in the Metagame.
The trade doesn't seem valid, especially if we consider that the Broodscale Combo would continue to have the chronic dilemma of forcing more Snuff Out from the maindeck in archetypes that don't want it, Trespasser's Curse as a four-of in the Sideboards, among other common options to deal with the archetype. The problem is and will always be the potential for early combo-kill.
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To diversify the Metagame and also to expand the possibility of responses in the Sideboards and maindeck, in addition to taking away Pauper's combo potential that is too consistent and with efficient tools to protect itself and find the necessary pieces, perhaps the time has come to ban Sadistic Glee or Basking Broodscale, with Glee being the most assertive option, since it only works in this archetype and its cost is too low to run the risk of another card, one day, breaking it again.
Deadly Dispute is another card that has always been on the radar of ban requests in Pauper. Its interaction with Ichor Wellspring turns it into an Ancestral Recall and generates a bit too much value, while also providing a manafix that several archetypes benefit from. While there are several effects that share the same line of text in Pauper, only Deadly Dispute creates a treasure.
For a while, PFP has been talking about the possibility of unbanning Prophetic Prism. The artifact was banned in 2021 to reduce the consistency of mana access for archetypes like Affinity and Tron, and since then, many new cards have come out and the nature of the Pauper Metagame has changed considerably to the point where Tron, in its traditional version, has little competitive relevance and is being preyed on by both Kuldotha Red and Affinity.
Unbanning Prophetic Prism seems fair under the current circumstances. But adding it just for the benefit of unbanning means giving more food for the consistency of archetypes like Affinity and Altar Tron at no additional cost, and while there are doubts whether Affinity still needs Prophetic Prism, the mere act of “giving” the deck another tool would be enough to generate more hate around it.
Swapping Deadly Dispute for Prophetic Prism would be a viable option. Affinity loses some of its card advantage, but gains efficient manafixing in its place, while the return of the artifact bolsters lesser-played decks. However, Dispute is also a card that enables and/or bolsters archetypes in the lower tiers, and while its most absurd plays revolve around Ichor Wellspring, some just try to cast it alongside Shambling Ghast or some token generator to trigger Gixian Infiltrator and Mortician Beetle.
It's up to the PFP to decide if the trade is worth it. It doesn't seem feasible in terms of feedback that Prophetic Prism would return without removing Deadly Dispute because it's improving strong decks while doing very little for the rest of the Metagame, so would it be possible to replace one card with the other on the banned list and see how the format develops? Yes. And It's up to us to see if that would be a wise decision.
Legacy
Our author Elton Fior wrote an article for Legacy explaining the possibilities of bans and unbans in the format
, highlighting the problems surrounding “turn 0” wins with Thassa’s Oracle and the possibility of unbanning Hermit Druid.
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Conclusion
That’s all for today!
If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment!
Thanks for reading!
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