How Often Should You Mulligan? A Statistical Guide for TCG Players

Knowing when to keep or toss your opening hand can drastically influence your odds of winning — often more than the deck you bring to the table.

So, how often should you mulligan? Based on a wide pool of tournament data and player analytics, top players mulligan anywhere from 10% to 25% of the time, depending on deck type, game format, and whether they're going first or second. But to turn those numbers into actionable strategy, we need to dig deeper into the math, psychology, and metagame implications behind the mulligan.

Let’s start with what the numbers say. According to gameplay data collected by MTG Arena and third-party trackers like Untapped.gg, mulligans are most commonly used in aggro or combo decks that rely on drawing a specific set of early cards. On average:

● Control decks mulligan around 12% of the time.

● Aggro decks: up to 20-25%.

● Combo decks can reach 30%+, especially in formats like Legacy or Modern.

Why does this matter? Because mulligans reduce card advantage — starting with fewer cards puts you at a disadvantage. But if your opening hand can’t execute your game plan, you're likely to lose anyway. Mulligans are a trade-off: short-term loss for long-term positioning.

Before diving into probabilities, let’s review the rules. Most TCGs use some variation of:

● The Paris Mulligan (older MTG): Shuffle and draw one fewer card.

● The London Mulligan (current MTG): Draw seven, then put a number of cards equal to mulligans taken on the bottom of your deck.

Why does this matter? The London Mulligan changed everything. It encourages strategic mulligans, since you get to dig seven deep every time. This is a huge boost for combo players, who now have higher odds of assembling key pieces early on.

Other TCGs like Flesh and Blood or Yu-Gi-Oh! have unique systems, but the general principle remains: a better starting hand gives you tempo, efficiency, and higher win percentage.

Many casual players mulligan only when their hand is truly unplayable — too many lands, no early plays, etc. But pro-level play shows a different trend. According to PolskieKasynohex, a site known for analyzing statistics across both gambling and strategic card games, mulligan decisions should be treated with the same mathematical precision as blackjack hit/stand decisions. In their analysis shared for this article, they emphasize how win-rates vary up to 18% depending on mulligan behavior, especially in fast formats like Standard or Explorer.

Take a simple MTG example: You’re playing an aggro deck and need at least one 1-drop and two lands. A hand with three lands and four midrange cards has a low chance of curving out properly. Statistically, a mulligan gives you better odds of hitting that essential early drop — even at the cost of card advantage.

Some decks are more “mulligan-proof” than others. Midrange and control decks are designed to weather suboptimal hands, thanks to efficient draw spells and interaction. On the other hand, aggressive and combo decks are high-variance by nature — and mulliganing is your way of controlling that variance.

Even experienced players make errors when evaluating starting hands. Here are a few traps to avoid:

● Keeping hands with no early plays: Even with good spells, hands that do nothing until turn 3 can be dead weight in fast matchups.

● Over-mulliganing for "perfect" hands: Sometimes 6 good cards beat searching for the dream 7.

● Ignoring opponent's deck: Your mulligan strategy should shift depending on whether you face aggro, control, or combo.

Mulligans aren’t just a solo decision. They're contextual — format, opponent, deck type, and whether you're going first or second all play a role.

Tracking your mulligan decisions is a powerful way to improve. Many digital platforms (like MTG Arena trackers or Pokémon TCG Online logs) let you record mulligan rates and win outcomes.

Don’t overlook physical preparation either. As noted in this helpful gear checklist by The Portable Gamer (Basic Gaming Equipment Every Player Needs), organized deck boxes and shuffled sleeves can reduce game delays and help ensure you always start with a fair hand.

Several studies across TCGs show that players who make smart mulligans consistently win more. A 2022 analysis of over 1 million MTG Arena games revealed:

● Players who mulliganed to 6 and kept a solid curve had a win rate of 52%.

● Players who kept shaky 7-card hands averaged 47%.

● Going down to 5 cards resulted in just a 38% win rate, except in combo-heavy decks where the payoff was higher.

The same pattern holds in other TCGs like Legends of Runeterra and Flesh and Blood, where openers set the tone for the entire match. Knowing your deck’s key ratios (land/spell, threats/removal, etc.) lets you calculate the value of each hand better than your gut instinct ever will.

Here’s a method to train your mulligan decision-making:

1. Draw 10 practice hands for your deck.

2. Without looking at your opponent’s deck, decide: keep or mulligan?

3. Then simulate two turns and review if the decision was correct.

4. Repeat with different scenarios (on the play vs. draw, versus aggro vs. control, etc.).

You’ll soon notice patterns — which hands perform better, which get stuck. It’s the same concept professional poker players use when studying hand ranges. Mulligans are about range, not just results.

Mulliganing may seem like a luck-based mechanic, but it’s anything but random. With proper knowledge, tracking, and analysis, you can turn mulligans into a weapon, not a weakness.

Think of it this way: in high-stakes poker, folding a bad hand is just as powerful as playing a good one. The same applies in TCGs. Sometimes the strongest play is to throw it all back and start again — but only when the stats say so.

If you're serious about leveling up your card game, it’s time to stop fearing the mulligan and start treating it like the strategic decision it really is.